One of the winners in the draft, according to nearly every fantasy outlet, was Bhayshul Tuten. A diminutive running back drafted in the 4th round of 2025 whose presence made the similar Tank Bigsby superfluous. But I keep coming back to this and wondering, why would this be good for the Jaguars' offense? I don't think it is. And I think that's going to lead them to a weird place.

I usually leave stuff like this in weird places (posted to my own Reddit profile, where no one will read it or random blueskeets), but for the first time, I want to try and write it out, explain a bit about it, and have a receipt to look back on, right or wrong. Being wrong is fine with me; there is no shame in that. But being right...my god. What a feeling when you are.

Are the Jaguars going to have a run game at all?

All stats are compared against running back seasons between 2018 and 2025.

Jacksonville is bringing back its entire offensive line. That's good. The line was rated average at run blocking last year by PFF. And behind this line, Bhayshul Tuten had 1.65 yards before contact. That's the 11th percentile. Travis Etienne had 2.16 yards before contact behind the same exact line, 45th percentile. Both players faced an average of 6.4 defenders in the box, according to Playerprofiler. Tuten faced a light front (6 or fewer defenders) on 68.7% of his carries, fourth-highest rate in the league. It is hard to manufacture an easier situation to run on. Tuten had a 22.9% broken tackle rate, 81st percentile, and a 58th percentile yards-after-contact at 2.05. This combination of high broken tackle rate, while chugging past defenders at an average rate, and low yards before contact facing light boxes led to a weak 3.7 yards per attempt but a strong 58% success rate on rushing attempts. That combination of low yards before contact and high success rate has happened very few times in the last 8 seasons, so it's a slight anomaly.

Every player to hit that low Yards-Before-Contact, High Success Rate mark from 2018-2025

Chris Rodriguez will pair with Tuten and has a similar profile, and also completed the same anomaly last year. He averaged 1.49 yards before contact, while teammate Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 2.53. The former number reaches the 6th percentile, the latter at the 69th. I'll skip the rest of the numbers for brevity, but Rodriguez also paired that low before-contact number with an elite yards-after-contact, high broken tackle rate, while facing mostly light boxes. Leading to a respectable 4.5 yards per carry overall.

Comparisons between Chris Rodriguez, Bhayshul Tuten and their former Teammates.

Teams are already not even attempting to put players in the box to stop these guys, and these two backs are only seemingly making it past the line of scrimmage due to the fortune of breaking tackles that defenses are not finishing- that's a tenuous situation. One ripe for falling apart. It creates a potential for this to be one of the weakest run games in the NFL. And that means the Jaguars might just pass a lot.

Jaguars Without a Run Game?

I’m making this assumption for the 2026 season: I don't think the Jaguars will have a successful run game. That assumption leads me to two more assumptions:

  1. The Jaguars will have a one-dimensional offense, led by an aggressive but inefficient QB.
  2. The Jaguars' offense will be ineffective, but offer a lot of volume.

Trevor Lawrence has been increasing his share of deeper passes since his rookie season. Once Brian Thomas Jr. joined the team, they finally had the right player to align his deep ball push with someone who could actually catch them. As of 2025, Lawrence had the 6th highest percentage of his passes travel 20 yards, the 4th highest percentage travel 10-19 yards, while passes between 0-9 yards and behind the line of scrimmage fell to 31st and 32nd.

Here's what i'm envisioning- the Jaguars will realize by week 7 that running two grinders into a line they can not seemingly read is not an ideal offense. And the offense shifts into a pass-first volume heavy attack where they lean into their robust receiver trio of Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers. Assuming they don't realize that before they get out of training camp, or sign another running back to fix the problem here, or maybe Tuten totally explodes and does way better than expected (I just can’t see it currently). They'll also be facing the Bears, Broncos, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders, Eagles, and Giants this year- all of which could produce high-scoring games and push them to pass even more.

In my eyes, this looks like a team that can produce three receivers with at least 700 receiving yards. And at least one of them could be positioned for a top 12 season. There are just two main things that have to be decided on here, by you, the reader:

  • Choice 1: Brian Thomas Jr., who is currently going at WR32 in best ball, is actually good and is a screaming buy.

If BTJ is actually good and last year was an aberration, then he must be drafted. He is going after D.K. Metcalf, Marvin Harrison Jr., Courtland Sutton, Christian Watson; i would be comfortable reaching for BTJ above all those options, even if i didn't think he was good. At this price, it feels like malpractice not reaching for him.

I'm not the biggest fan of BTJ either. Close friends would even consider me a hater of him. But he does pass the WR model, even if he does so in a way that has shown some volatile year-to-year results for similar receivers. However, he's priced at WR32, which already assumes the risk without accounting for the potential that Trevor Lawrence might lead the NFL in attempts this year, after having the 6th most attempts last year. The Jaguars are already passing a lot and just allowed their best running back to leave without replacing them.

  • Choice 2: Brian Thomas Jr. is not good, and therefore, one of Parker Washington (WR36 in best ball) or Jakobi Meyers (WR43) should be drafted.

You could actually draft BTJ and one or both of these two without a problem in actual drafts. Personally, I have always been a Parker Washington fan, and if BTJ is not good (hell, even if he is), I think Parker will be very valuable. Over his career, Parker has been an elite short target (99th percentile in yards-per-target on short passes) while adding an average intermediate game and even attacking downfield (with varied results, mostly catch-and-fall plays). With BTJ on the field forcing the defense to respect the deep ball, Parker can complement that by stretching the defenses in the short area of the field whenever they overcommit to stopping BTJ. Meyers does not offer the same dynamic talents in the short game, but does have a better resume in the deeper areas, while having a similar one to Parker in the intermediate. That makes Meyers a good arbitrage when pre-snap alignments show them cheating to BTJ as well. It'll really depend on what the Jaguars/Lawrence prefer to prioritize- the dynamic range of Parker or the "do-it-allness" of Jakobi Meyers.

I just felt like this real post from the Jaguars instagram belonged here.

What About the Other Players?

Brenton Strange (Underdog Bestball ADP TE19) is at a fair price, and it wouldn't be unlikely for him to finish in that nebulous TE6-14 range. Last season, he greatly improved his talents on short receptions, but he is still far from the elite tight ends in that area. That makes it hard to see reasons why the team will feature him over the other options. It’s not like he’s an elite intermediate or deep target either; extremely few tight ends are, so there’s no reason to push him in those directions either for the Jaguars. He’s a safe but unexciting option in my eyes.

Bayshul Tuten is still arguably valuable even with a dead run game. His RB26 price in best ball is currently taking in a lot of that risk, but there's still the chance that this run game turns into Rodriguez at the goal line (as the bigger, far more tackle-breaking back) while Tuten eats empty yards between the 20's and possibly shares a part of the passing game. I think anyone who has Tuten on their leagues would be hoping that the high volume also leads to enough checkdowns to make him valuable. The worst-case is if Trevor Lawrence starts running more, taking away checkdown opportunities while also devouring rushing yards.

The weirdest part is Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is currently QB9 in underdog best ball drafts after finishing the 2025 season as QB6 off a career-high 9 rushing touchdowns. That ADP is already giving him credit for the number of attempts he'll be taking without any room to assume that he could completely fall apart in a one-dimensional offense. Losing touchdowns and adding up empty passing yards while possibly adding rushing yards isn’t the worst, but it isn’t a lot of upside either. The hope would be that Lawrence finds a new gear as a player with this many passing weapons, or can repeat his rushing performance. Both of which this setup is offering him the chance to do.