Marvin Harrison Jr. should've hit the ground running. The Cardinals should be enamored with a future superstar, planning for the future using the luck they fell onto. Instead, in his second Year, he's becoming a stranger to the offense that was ready to make him their king. This won't be a post about X's and O's, I don't know enough about those. This is a post about three players- all tied to one "thesis" about the strangeness of how NFL production is impacted by three factors: Players, Perception, and Starpower.
Some things to define that will be mentioned again and again:
Short Targets = 0-9 Air Yards
Intermediate Targets = 10-19 Air Yards
Deep Target = 20+ Air Yards
Per Target Efficiency = Yards/Target and Catch %.
Per Reception Efficiency = Yards/Reception and YAC/Reception. I think this can be used as a proxy for "effective" separation.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s situation-ship with the Arizona Cardinals is evolving before our eyes. A "Generational Prospect" with a Hall-of-Fame Father, coming from the "WR Factory" of Ohio State, his gravity could be felt in the NFL before he was. But the pressure his presence put on the NFL has weakened once he made contact.
Harrison was drafted highly, very well regarded, but my draft "model" doesn't see him as an efficient college receiver. He found an alternate way to pass using different criteria, but that's strange for a generational prospect. My process targets players who should experience a majority of their seasons ending with 1000 yards or at least very close to it over their NFL careers. Even without college efficiency, Marvin Harrison Jr. used a rarely passed statistic to beat the model. And two years into Harrison's career, he's looking similar to another player who had lower expectations but passed the process in the same way: D.K. Metcalf.
We're nearing the end of D.K. Metcalf's long career, and at this point, it's fair to say- he isn't a leading WR. Not in fantasy. Well, except once.
Tangent- D.K. Metcalf
With 6 completed seasons in his career, D.K. Metcalf ended 4 of them within 100 yards of 1000. Above or below. One of the two that didn't is barely beyond that boundary (1114 yards). The other was his fantastic 2020 season. 83 Catches on 129 targets. 10 Touchdowns. 1303 Yards. Dominant.
Breaking this down by distance, Metcalf nearly led the league on deep targets and was efficient on those targets and receptions. He hovered around average as an intermediate receiver both ways. And he was efficient when he caught a short target, but not when he was targeted with one. Not exactly red flags. But this doesn't look like your typical elite receiver. Lacking short-target efficiency gives insight into getting open quickly. Being average as an intermediate receiver during a breakout is strange because that's where the majority of big-time players show their worth. And while it's great to dominate the deep ball, it's also a regressive area of the field that doesn't carry over year to year for many reasons.
In the face of inefficiency, Metcalf received a lot of those short targets because the coaches wanted him to. Metcalf was an ascending sophomore that the team believed could become more than they had seen so far. They were ready to put the team on his back. The internal narratives and beliefs coaches hold inform their plans and designs around certain players and change their career trajectories, something I hope will come across as we continue. Metcalf was second on the team in targets in 2020 at 129. Metcalf’s follow-up earned him 129 targets again, leading the team this time around. But his yardage cratered.
Metcalf experienced a common deep-ball regression in 2021. He was still near the top of the league in deep volume and well above average for his efficiency per catch. However, per deep target, he was well below average. His intermediate game crashed; Metcalf was close to the absolute bottom per-target and reception efficiency among all NFL receivers. His short game improved to average. The following year, Metcalf would receive 140 targets and barely scrape the 1000-yard mark while repeating the same inefficiencies.
I think you can start figuring out the general profile of a receiver with this simple method. I'm sure the tape can reveal even more specificity, but this is enough for our game: Fantasy Football. Metcalf is a talented receiver with huge inefficiencies in the areas where he will receive most of his targets over his career. Seahawks' Coaches will have their resolve tested; they will have to believe in Metcalf to keep giving him the volume he is not performing on. The confidence they have in their alternative options could also impact that decision. But on strictly per-target and per-reception stats, D.K. Metcalf is anywhere between the bottom-to-average within 20 yards of where the play begins.
Speaking of alternate options, Tyler Lockett played on the other side of Metcalf. During the 5-year overlap of their Seattle Seahawks careers, Lockett was also below average amongst the NFL in intermediate and short receptions. But generally above average per target. I read this as Lockett being good at getting open but not making much out of each catch beyond that. Not exactly the profile of someone who can make the coaches re-prioritize the Star of the team, and it didn't. In Metcalf's explosive 2020 season, Lockett led the team on short targets, but that wouldn't be the case again when they played together.
In 2021, the Seahawks drafted Dee Eskridge with their second-round pick, on the heels of D.K. Metcalf's explosion. Eskridge would fit in as the slot receiver and ultimately wash off of the team without even breaching the shoreline. A second-round investment into a third receiver that would focus on the short area of the field feels like the Seahawks might’ve known Metcalf had some limits.
Regardless, whether due to the organization’s belief in Metcalf or lack of other options, Metcalf led the team every year thereafter in short and intermediate targets until Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s arrival in 2023. Without showing any significant proficiency in either area, Metcalf would be on top.
Metcalf's 2023 would be his first season ever showing above-average intermediate ability. But he was still a net negative in the short game per target and per catch. Jaxon Smith-Njigba would give the team a better option in the short game and would eventually pull those targets away from Metcalf, weakening his floor. In 2024, Metcalf cratered again, and the team was done with him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had taken over. Metcalf was already a passing thought. It was clear they no longer believed he was the Star.
Oh, Right, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr. wishes his competition were Tyler Lockett because his actual competition is the incredible Trey McBride. Even compared to Wide Receivers and Tight Ends, McBride is one of the NFL’s best short and intermediate targets. Trey McBride is the Cardinal’s Star.
As a rookie, Marvin Harrison Jr. was average in the short area and one of the league's worst in the intermediate area. In 2025, he improved to only below average in the intermediate, and fell to one of the worst short targets in the league while being barely above average when catching them.
In Harrison's debut season, he was near the league’s peak in deep volume, but lacked efficiency on targets or receptions. As a Sophomore, he was pacing to repeat that volume while improving to nearly average.
The problem starts to calcify for Marvin Harrison. He is a convincing receiver down the field, but below average in the intermediate and short areas. And he's playing beside one of the best targets in the league in those spaces. How is he supposed to get the volume to hold up his floor if he's unable to take targets away from this dominant tight end? In 2025, only 31% of Marvin Harrison's targets are short, well below the NFL average for starting WR1s (ranging between 40-48%). Even Metcalf didn't dip below 40% until JSN's second season, and Metcalf was inefficient on those targets for most of his career. That's a lot of floor being lost. A lot of easy points are going elsewhere. Is there even a player that can pull those targets away from McBride anyway?
So maybe Trey McBride is the problem? He's in the way of Marvin Harrison owning this. Trey McBride is the Star.
Michael Wilson
An under-the-radar prospect, Michael Wilson spent his halcyon college years injured on an uncompetitive Stanford team that contained a handful of NFL depth players, including Arizona Cardinals teammate Elijah Higgins. Wilson was quietly drafted in the third round after rumors of DeAndre Hopkins wanting to leave radiated from the Cardinals' facility. And shortly after Wilson was drafted, Hopkins was sent to Tennessee. With only Hollywood Brown and his specialized usage to compete with, the Cardinals would need Wilson to show consistency and be a check on defenses committed to stopping the big plays that gave Hollywood his name.
Michael Wilson is another player who passes my "model". He passed it in the normal way, by simply being an efficient college receiver. There are many failures in this bucket, too, but it offers contrast to Marvin Harrison as a special case, like D.K. Metcalf.
Wilson was finding his stride quickly as a rookie. In his first 8 games, he reached 50 yards 5 times and had at least 5 targets thrice. Then he got injured. That was the week Trey McBride came alive. Wilson will then miss four games over five weeks, and the one he plays will be forgettable, before two more games he might wish he hadn't bothered playing and finishing the season on lines of 4/35/1 and 6/95.
The 2023 Cardinals offered few alternatives to Michael Wilson at the season’s start. Journeyman quarterback Joshua Dobbs would also play for injured starter Kyler Murray for the first half of the season. In those conditions, Michael Wilson claimed above-average efficiency at the deep and intermediate ends, and was above average per short target while being slightly below average per short reception. In a small sample size, the rookie played well. But that team was in a lost year. And they were entering 2024 with the #4 overall pick in the draft. And a generational wide receiver was waiting for them.
In comes Marvin Harrison Jr. The coaches see him as their next Star. He can form a powerful duo with their other Star, Trey McBride. Michael Wilson has been usurped. And $230 million Quarterback Kyler Murray is not going to throw enough passes to feed all of these players. In Michael Wilson's second year, he maintains a mostly average NFL efficiency across all depths.
That's a little weird, right? The player they replaced him with is below NFL average at every level of the field, while Wilson is at NFL average or better two years in a row. But that's what the team wants. Wilson wasn't a convincing Star. Not the way Trey McBride is. And not the way they imagined Marvin Harrison Jr. could be.
Entering Year 3, that's still what the Cardinals are thinking. But an "injury" is forcing their hand. And things are looking a little different.
Michael Wilson is playing on the same field as Trey McBride. And in the two weeks they’ve played together, he's commanding more short and intermediate targets than McBride. This is the same tight end who was arguably in the way of Marvin Harrison Jr. being given that glory. And to make matters worse, Wilson is more efficient than Harrison in the intermediate area. The key area for most of the league's leading wide receivers. On short passes, Wilson might not be breaking big plays, but on nearly twice as many targets as Harrison, he is catching a far higher percentage of his opportunities. He's open, and he's finishing. He is showing something. This target profile has a strong weekly floor, and the intermediate efficiency offers a strong potential ceiling.
So,
There's an assumption that coaches are sharpening their rosters through practices, watching players every day, and coming to knowledgeable conclusions about who belongs where. I'm a pessimist about that assumption. These coaches drafted Michael Wilson; they saw him every day, and if they thought he could put together back-to-back 100-yard games as the leading Wide Receiver, maybe they would've made him a focal point? Wilson saw 12% of the Cardinals' targets from weeks 1-9. Then he saw 31% in Weeks 10 and 11. Marvin Harrison has 19% this year in the games he played. And on lower volume, he's been less efficient than Michael Wilson. That shouldn't be the case for a player that they utilized over Wilson.
What happens to Marvin Harrison Jr.? As the team's primary deep target and on high volume, he could burst with efficiency since those targets have high variance year-over-year. What happens then? Do the Cardinals overlook the inefficiencies in other areas and position him the same way the Seahawks positioned D.K. Metcalf? What if they don't? Can another team do that? Can Marvin Harrison Jr. experience a massive improvement regardless?
What about Michael Wilson? How long can Michael Wilson keep up the charade? Can he prove to the Cardinals that he deserves to be viewed as their Star? What if this isn't enough? After all, he's mostly working in the same depth as Trey McBride. Do the Cardinals see that as the kind of offense they want to run? Did they really fall in love with Marvin Harrison Jr., or was he just the exact type of player they were looking for as a counter-balance to their other Star? Will they set their sights on a new player to be what they believed Harrison could be? Would another team be able to value Michael Wilson like the player he's shown to be so far- someone who has shown more above-average NFL efficiency stats than below?
Both of these players carry immense upside that they have yet to scratch the surface of, and the variance between how they are viewed and what they are showing/could be carries opportunity for anyone willing to take a risk. But it's not any of us needing to be convinced to believe in either of them; it's coaching staffs filled with guys who are absolutely sure they know what they're looking at, even when it's clear they're wrong.
Member discussion: